SOYBEANS: Considering that the long-term pattern in beans continues to indicate that a POWERFUL, "THRUST-WAVE" DECLINE ought to begin...at ANYTIME here, AND prices are now back-up to our HUGE RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 9.76-9.87,aggressive traders and hedgers may want to go short. However, because prices have already "tested" this area THREE-TIMES, AND triple/quadruple-tops are quite RARE, I’m inclined to wait for some confirmation, BEFORE officially going short. Note, IF we’re still in a larger (but final), (e)-wave advance from the Feb low, then prices could stage A QUICK ACCELERATION TO THE 10.06-10.23 ½ LEVEL. This area yields key retracement projections from the 2008, 2009 and 2010 highs, as well as the 61 8%-times wave-(c)projection. By the way, in order to get a potential "sell-signal" here, we ONLY need to see A DROP OF JUST OVER 20-CENTS (or so?). Support’s at 9.58-9.51 ½/9.39 ½-9.29 ½/9.17-9.16/8.92-8.80.

CORN: Although the pattern in corn continues to look VERY BEARISH overall, Wednesday’s slight penetration of interim resistance at about 3.58-3.61 may have forced a "moderate change" in the intermediate-term pattern. Note, while a HIGHLY BEARISH, wave-(3)-of-[3] position could still be indicated, IF prices reverse back-down SHARPLY....NOW!, it’s also possible that we’ve confirmed that the drop from the Jan top was ONLY A "THREE-WAVE" MOVEMENT. In which case the LEAST BULLISH COUNT will call for a "re-test" of the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Mar 1 AND Mar 18 highs, or about 3.77 ½-3.84. However, IF we’ve actually been in a Contracting Triangle formation since the 2008 low, which is the likely count for beans, then prices could rebound all the way back to the key 3.99-4.02 ½ resistance level. Anyhow, one-way or another, I suspect we’ll attempt to re-enter short fairly soon. It’s just a question of when, and where? There’s also some resistance at 3.67-3.70 and 3.89-3.93 ½, with the support at 3.59-3.56, 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35 and 3.27 3/4-3.24.

WHEAT: As long as the May wheat holds our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 4.87-4.94, AND more importantly, the Mar 17 cont. chart high at 4.98 1/4, the pattern will continue to call for a FINAL (?), (5)th-wave decline to AT LEAST the 4.24-4.10 level. In the event 4.98 1/4 is "violated", however, then we’ll have to figure that a MUCH LARGER RALLY could follow. At this point, however, I have NO IDEA how to label such a development. Anyhow,while I’m standing-aside, HRT and hedgers may want to try a short just under 4.87, with a stop at 4.99 1/4. Support for the May wheat is at 4.72-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35 and 4.24-4.10.

COTTON: Considering that we’ve now confirmed a completed, "three-wave"decline from the Mar 1 top in cotton; at the April 9 low of 78.00, it looks like we’re about to find-out IF my Preferred Count is correct. IF prices can turn back-down within the next day or two, AND last weeks 78.00 low in the May contract is EXCEEDED, then we’ll almost certainly confirm that the MOST BEARISH WAVE-POSITION SINCE THE 1995 TOP IS AT HAND. However, in the event the nearby contract first posts a daily CLOSE ABOVE KEY RESISTANCE AT 83.08-83.39, then we will have to figure that the Mar 1 top at 84.32 is also going to "give-way". In which case, BEFORE a major top is in place, prices will likely re-test the 2008 top at 91.38. Anyhow, IF May does drop under 78.00, then ALL TRADERS can look to go short the JULY contract. N.t. resist. for May is at 80.57-80.95 and 81.89-82.17, ,w/support at 79.32-78.06, 76.72-76.00, 74.57-73.94 and 72.43.

HOGS: Given that the long-term count in hogs continues to indicate that a MAJOR TOP should be hit via the continuation chart, shortly AFTER Thursday’s expiration of the nearby April contract, we could have a sell rec. in the next day or two. However, because we do need to be able to make a decent case for a completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low in BOTH THE MAY AND JUNE CONTRACTS, AND I can NOT do so yet, we’ll just have to see how things play out here. Note, if BOTH the May and June hogs happen to EXCEED my LAST TWO LONG-TERM RESISTANCE CLUSTERS; at 85.65-86.10 (BEST!!) and 87.37-88.50 MAX!, then we’ll have no choice but to conclude that prices are going to try for the 2008 top (90.00). Support (April) is at 76.87-76.77/75.20-74.85/73.65/72.82-72.37.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COFFEE: While I guess it’s possible that the May coffee could take another "stab" at the key 137.00-138.65 resistance area near-term, the action over the past several-weeks looks SO BEARISH...I seriously doubt it. Note, because it looks like we’ve not only confirmed a completed, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO advance; at the April 5 high of 139.85, but the subsequent drop has also traced-out a perfect, "five-wave/impulse-pattern down", the implication here is that we’re about to enter the "heart" of a CYCLE-WAVE-THREE, OF SUPER-CYCLE-WAVE-(C)DECLINE. Which, if correct, should amount to the SINGLE-MOST BEARISH POSITION SINCE THE 1997 TOP. At any rate, while aggressive traders may want to try and ADD another short-position...on the next minor bounce, we DON’T really have a big enough lead yet to justify doing so ,i.e., from a money management stand-point. KEY, NEAR-TERM RESISTANCE is at 132.70-133.60 and 134.90-135.65, with the support at 131.30-128.95, 127.55, 126.30-125.35, 124.00-123.00 and 121.50.

SUGAR: Since it now looks like we’ve STRONGLY CONFIRMED that an INITIAL, Primary wave-[1]/wave-[a] decline off the Feb top has indeed bottomed in the May sugar; at the April 1 low 15.46, a "moderately bullish" position should be at hand. Note, that prices should now remain in a higher-trend for at least the next week or two, with a BARE MINIMUM TARGET AT 19.53-19.79. Thus, IF we can get a multi-day pullback BEFORE this area is hit, we’ll likely try a quick play on the long-side. However, IF 19.53-19.79 is reached first, then we’ll probably just wait for the right time to re-enter short. Note, once a rally of Primary-degree ends, the pattern will call for a MAJOR DROP of the same-degree as the HUGE Feb-April decline. Near-term resistance is at 17.64-17.76, 18.31-18.53 and 18.98-19.16, w/support at 17.18-16.78/16.35-16.10/15.58-15.10/14.37.

OJ: Although a highly bearish count has NOT been confirmed yet in the OJ, the drop from the Mar 8 top has clearly produced a NEGATIVE, "five-wave/impulse-pattern". Thus, once an a-b-c rally is in place from last week’s low, traders will probably want to attempt a short-position. At that time, the pattern will call for AT LEAST ONE MORE SHARP DECLINE....and it could be a MAJOR, "third-wave"? Anyhow, IF the July OJ can trace-out a small, b-wave pullback over the next day or two, then we’ll ONLY need one more "shot-up" to complete the move. Resistance for July is at 134.40-134.80/136.60-137.75/139.00-140.70 (BEST!), with support at 131.55-131.40, 129.75-128.15, 126.30-124.70 and 122.60-121.65.

SILVER: IF the May silver can hold Monday’s 18.605 high initially, AND a DROP BELOW TUESDAY’S 17.955 LOW FOLLOWS, then a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low will be confirmed. At which point, prices should literally "fall-apart", as a MAJOR, Primary wave-[c]decline unfolds. In the event a "sell-signal" DOES OCCUR here, however, but prices still end-up EXCEEDING Monday’s 18.605 high...in a few days?, then a SIGNIFICANT CHANGE in the count will be indicated. In this case, since a larger, "five-wave rally" off the Feb low will be confirmed, the nearby contract will likely end-up AT LEAST RE-TESTING THE 2008 TOP OF 21.185. Of course,IF Monday’s 18.605 high is penetrated BEFORE Tuesday’s 17.955 low, then the pattern will still favor a MAJOR TOP...probably in the next couple of days. In this case, however, we’ll still need to see a DROP IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS, BEFORE a "sell-signal" will be confirmed. Resistance is at 18.405, 18.835, 19.26 and 19.69, with support now at 18.40-18.32/18.21-18.02/17.82-17.62/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.185.

STOCKS: IF we ever see A DECLINE IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS in the June S&P...we’ll go short. Otherwise, stand-aside. Resist. is at 1204.25-1208.50, 1216.00-1221.25,w/support at 1205.00/1197.75/1190.50/1183.25/1176.00/1169.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/15/10

CORN: Hedgers(75%)/traders ADDED a short May corn at 3.56, and were stopped-out of all 3 short-positions at 3.62 1/4 for a combined profit of $1,200.

COTTON: IF May cotton DROPS BELOW 78.00, then ALL TRADERS can sell JULY at 80.66, w/stop at 83.01. HRT/hedgers use a stop on short MAY at 81.70 (+$690).

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$3,750). Use a stop on HALF to 2964, and keep the stop on the other HALF at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$2,025). Keep stop at 136.45 SILVER: Traders can sell a May mini silver at *17.945 on-a-stop, using a protective-stop at 18.615.