SOYBEANS: Considering that the long-term pattern in beans continues to indicate that a POWERFUL, "THRUST-WAVE" DECLINE ought to begin...at ANYTIME here, AND prices are now back-up to our HUGE RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 9.76-9.87,aggressive traders and hedgers may want to go short. However, because prices have already "tested" this area THREE-TIMES, AND triple/quadruple-tops are quite RARE, I’m inclined to wait for some confirmation, BEFORE officially going short. Note, IF we’re still in a larger (but final), (e)-wave advance from the Feb low, then prices could stage A QUICK ACCELERATION TO THE 10.06-10.23 ½ LEVEL. This area yields key retracement projections from the 2008, 2009 and 2010 highs, as well as the 61 8%-times wave-(c)projection. By the way, in order to get a potential "sell-signal" here, we ONLY need to see A DROP OF JUST OVER 20-CENTS (or so?). Support’s at 9.58-9.51 ½/9.39 ½-9.29 ½/9.17-9.16/8.92-8.80.

CORN: Again, since last week’s pattern in the May corn not only resulted in a BEARISH, a-b-c rally, but prices also peaked right at our OPTIMUM TARGET for a wave-2, or 3.55 ½-3.61, the overall wave-position continues to look VERY NEGATIVE! In fact, IF prices can now EXCEED the April 1 low at 3.43 ½ (by much?), the ideal count will actually indicate that we are just now entering "heart" of a SUPER BEARISH, wave-3-of-(3), of Primary wave-[c]decline. In which case, BEFORE we see anything more than a "mild", 1-week bounce, prices will likely fall to the EQUAL WAVES (1)-and-(3) projection at about 3.02 ½. However, as long as the 3.43 ½ area continues to "hold" initially, then we could still see one more "test" of the 3.55 ½-3.61 resistance. Thus, at least for Wed., we’ll keep our sell-order in at 3.56. The next higher resistance areas are at 3.67-3.70 and 3.77 ½-3.82 ½, w/support at 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4/3.37 ½-3.35/3.27 3/4-3.24

WHEAT:[No change]The KEY RESISTANCE for May is at 4.73-4.76/4.87-4.94 (BEST)-and 5.03-5.08 ½, with the support now at 4.72-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35 and 4.24-4.10.

COTTON: Considering that we’ve now confirmed a completed, "three-wave"decline from the Mar 1 top in cotton; at the April 9 low of 78.00, it looks like we’re about to find-out IF my Preferred Count is correct. IF prices can turn backdown within the next day or two, AND last weeks 78.00 low in the May contract is EXCEEDED, then we’ll almost certainly confirm that the MOST BEARISH WAVE-POSITION SINCE THE 1995 TOP IS AT HAND. However, in the event the nearby contract first posts a daily CLOSE ABOVE KEY RESISTANCE AT 83.08-83.39, then we will have to figure that the Mar 1 top at 84.32 is also going to "give-way". In which case, BEFORE a major top is in place, prices will likely re-test the 2008 top at 91.38. Anyhow, IF May does drop under 78.00, then ALL TRADERS can look to go short the JULY contract. N.t. resist. for May is at 80.57-80.95 and 81.89-82.17, ,w/support at 80.60/79.32-78.06/76.72-76.00/74.57-73.94/72.43.

HOGS: Given that the long-term count in hogs continues to indicate that a MAJOR TOP should be hit via the continuation chart, shortly AFTER Thursday’s expiration of the nearby April contract, we could have a sell rec. in the next day or two. However, because we do need to be able to make a decent case for a completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low in BOTH THE MAY AND JUNE CONTRACTS, AND I can NOT do so yet, we’ll just have to see how things play out here. Note, if BOTH the May and June hogs happen to EXCEED my LAST TWO LONG-TERM RESISTANCE CLUSTERS; at 85.65-86.10 (BEST!!) and 87.37-88.50 MAX!, then we’ll have no choice but to conclude that prices are going to try for the 2008 top (90.00). Support (April) is at 76.87-76.77/75.20-74.85/73.65/72.82-72.37.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COFFEE: While I guess it’s possible that the May coffee could take another "stab" at the key 137.00-138.65 resistance area near-term, the action over the past several-weeks looks SO BEARISH...I seriously doubt it. Note, because it looks like we’ve not only confirmed a completed, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO advance; at the April 5 high of 139.85, but the subsequent drop has also traced-out a perfect, "five-wave/impulse-pattern down", the implication here is that we’re about to enter the "heart" of a CYCLE-WAVE-THREE, OF SUPER-CYCLE-WAVE-(C)DECLINE. Which, if correct, should amount to the SINGLE-MOST BEARISH POSITION SINCE THE 1997 TOP. At any rate, while aggressive traders may want to try and ADD another short-position...on the next minor bounce, we DON’T really have a big enough lead yet to justify doing so ,i.e., from a money management standpoint. KEY, NEAR-TERM RESISTANCE is at 132.70-133.60 and 134.90-135.65, with the support at 131.30-128.95, 127.55, 126.30-125.35, 124.00-123.00 and 121.50.

SUGAR: Given that the advance off the April 1 low in May sugar has now clearly EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other bounce since the Feb top, it looks like we may have confirmed a completed decline of Primary-degree. In which case,prices should remain in a HIGHER-TREND for at least the next couple of weeks, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT 19.66-19.91. However, because the intra-day pattern from the April 1 low looks A LOT MORE LIKE A BEARISH, a-b-c formation (so far?), I’m going to wait at least another day BEFORE considering a quick long-position. IF the drop from Monday’s 17.37 high fails to yield a "bullish-three", then prices could try for our next lower support area at 14.37-13.84. Near-term support is at 16.98-16.78, 16.35-16.10 and 15.58-15.10 (good), with the resistance at 16.98-17.33, 17.76, 18.49-18.53, 19.16, 19.66-19.91and 20.73

COCOA: While I CAN’T RULE-OUT the possibility of another "test" of the HUGE 2985-3026 RESISTANCE AREA in the May cocoa (yet), the development of a "five-wave drop" strongly indicates that a Primary wave-[4] top has already been hit ,i.e., at the April 1 high of 3000. In which case, since we’d now be in just the INITIAL, wave-(1) section down, of a LARGER, Primary wave-[5] decline, A VERY BEARISH POSITION would also be at hand here. Under this count, depending on "where" wave-(1) bottoms, we should get a BARE MINIMUM TARGET AT 2690-2682, with the MORE LIKELY OBJECTIVES PROBABLY AT EITHER 2554-2530, OR 2435-2425. Anyhow, I’m inclined to keep the stop on HALF of our short-position just ABOVE our TWO CLOSEST RESISTANCE AREAS; at 2880-2910 and 2952-2961, with the other stop ABOVE 3026. Support’s at 2848-2834, 2769-2737, 2690-2682 and 2554-2530.

SILVER: IF the May silver can hold Monday’s 18.605 high initially, AND a DROP BELOW TUESDAY’S 17.955 LOW FOLLOWS, then a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low will be confirmed. At which point, prices should literally "fall apart", as a MAJOR, Primary wave-[c]decline unfolds. In the event a "sell-signal" DOES OCCUR here, however, but prices still end-up EXCEEDING Monday’s 18.605 high...in a few days?, then a SIGNIFICANT CHANGE in the count will be indicated. In this case, since a larger, "five-wave rally" off the Feb low will be confirmed, the nearby contract will likely end-up AT LEAST RE-TESTING THE 2008 TOP OF 21.185. Of course,IF Monday’s 18.605 high is penetrated BEFORE Tuesday’s 17.955 low, then the pattern will still favor a MAJOR TOP...probably in the next couple of days. In this case, however, we’ll still need to see a DROP IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS, BEFORE a "sell-signal" will be confirmed. Resistance is at 18.30, 18.405, 18.835, 19.26 and 19.69, with support now at 18.21-18.02/17.82-17.62/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.185-16.02.

STOCKS: Given that everything continues to indicate that the advance from the Feb low in stocks is a FINAL, Primary wave-[5], of an even larger, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE, it still looks like we ought to be "close" to a SIGNIFICANT TOP. However, because "picking-tops" is usually very difficult; especially in stocks, it’s doubtful that we’ll attempt a short-position,UNTIL we have confirmed a completed advance (from the Feb low). Which, as you are probably tired of hearing by now, still requires A DROP IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS. Resistance for the June S&P is at 1189.50-1195.75/1204.25-1208.50/1216.00-1221.25, with support at 1190.50/1183.25(good)/1176.00/1169.00(good)/1161.50/1154.50(good)/1147.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/14/10

CORN: Hedgers(75%)/traders can ADD a short May corn at 3.56, placing ALL STOPS at 3.62 1/4. We’re already short from 3.86 and 3.68 3/4 (+$2,737).

COTTON: IF May cotton DROPS BELOW 78.00, then ALL TRADERS can sell JULY at 80.66, w/stop at 82.91. HRT/hedgers use a stop on short MAY at *81.70 (+$425).

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$4,190). Use a stop on HALF to 2964, and keep the stop on the other HALF at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$1,894). Keep stop at 136.45 SILVER: Traders can sell a May mini silver at 17.92 on-a-stop, using a protective-stop at 18.615.