SOYBEANS: IF the May beans happen to "hold" last week’s 9.89 3/4 high initially, AND A DROP UNDER Monday’s 9.72 1/4 low follows, then we’ll be able to make a strong case for a completed advance off the Feb low. In which case, since this will suggest that A MAJOR, Primary wave-[c]DECLINE has begun, we’ll want to get short now. However, because we currently have a "quadruple-top", and they’re VERY RARE, I still think the odds slightly favor a "penetration" of last week’s high. In which case, we should have an EVEN BETTER SELL within the next week or so, as prices should then advance to the next BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 10.06-10.23 ½. This key area yields the "normal" 61.8%-relationship between waves (c)-and-(e)...within a "Contracting Triangle" formation, as well as numerous retracement projections. There’s also resistance at 9.83-9.87, with Support for May at 9.77-9.73, 9.58-9.51 ½, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½, 9.16 ½ and 8.92

CORN: While last week’s 3.65 high in the nearby May corn DID NOT OCCUR at ANY of my key resistance projections, Monday’s sharp-drop has clearly confirmed that the rally-off the April 1 low is indeed a "bearish-three". Thus,IF prices now "blow-out" that same low (at 3.43 ½), ONE HECK OF A NEGATIVE PATTERN will be indicated. In this case, we should just now be entering the "heart" of a wave-(3) decline, within a larger, Primary wave-[c]. Of course, IF the May corn can "hold" fairly close to the 3.43 ½ level, then I think there’s still a decent chance that we need to see ONE MORE MODERATE SHOT-UP. Under this count, the OPTIMUM SELL-ZONE should be at the same resistance cluster that produced the Mar 1 and Mar 18 continuation chart highs, or 3.77 ½-to-3.84. Near-term resistance for May corn is at 3.56-3.61 and 3.67-3.70, with the support at 3.56, 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35, 3.27 3/4-3.24 ½ and 3.14 3/4-3.10.

WHEAT: Although I’d be a little nervous on the short-side, IF the May wheat happens to EXCEED last week’s 4.91 1/4 high, the overall pattern will probably REMAIN BEARISH...as long as the Mar 17 cont. chart high a 4.98 1/4 IS NOT VIOLATED as well. Note, because we still need to see a drop to at least the 4.24-4.10 level, in order to make a case for a competed decline off the 2008 top, I still believe that prices should turn back down now. IF they DON’T, however, then I guess considerably HIGHER NUMBERS could be confirmed. Although, I have no idea how to label such an event. KEY RESISTANCE is at 4.87-4.94 and 5.03-5.08 ½, with the support at 4.86-4.85, 4.72-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35 and 4.24-4.10.

COTTON: Since the May and July cotton have now just about rallied all the way back-up to the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA(s) that have produced the past couple of highs, or 83.20-83.69 and 84.95-85.44, respectively, a "do-or-die" position is at hand. IF these areas hold, especially on a close, then my Preferred Count will still point to the MOST SIGNIFICANT TOP SINCE 1995. However, IF a CLOSE ABOVE resistance occurs first, then I’m assuming that the nearby contract will end-up EXCEEDING the critical Mar 1 high at 84.32 as well. In which case, since this will imply that we’re ONLY in an 11th-wave advance, within a LARGER 13-wave extension, we’ll probably "blowing-out" the 2008 top at 91.38. The next higher areas of resistance for the JULY cotton are at 86.58-86.77 and 88.15-88.95, w/support at 83.92, 82.73-82.35, 81.07-79.81 and 76.32-75.69.

HOGS: Since we now only need to stage ONE MORE SHOT-UP in the May and June hogs, in order to make a case for a completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low, a VERY CRITICAL POSITION is apt to be hit in the next couple of days. Note, that as long as the next rally "holds" our MAXIMUM RESISTANCE AREA AT 87.37-88.50 in BOTH MAY AND JUNE HOGS, then our long-term count will continue to favor a VERY MAJOR TOP. IF this level is "penetrated", however, OR we DON’T get a "5-down" pretty quick, then we’ll have no choice but to conclude that prices are headed for the 2008 high at 90.00. Anyhow, I’ll be watching closely. Support for May/June is at 86.15/84.97-84.95/83.75-83.45/81.90-81.82.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

OJ: Given that it’s now possible to label a completed/nearly completed, a-b-c rally off the April 8 low in OJ, AND prices have also reached our FIRST REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE AREA; at 137.00-138.70 May/138.20-139.90 July, it sure looks like we ought to have a decent sell. In short, because the Mar-April drop produced a clear, "five-wave pattern" , upon the completion of the current bounce prices should stage AT LEAST ONE MORE DECLINE of the same-magnitude. And, IF a long-term top is actually in place here(which has NOT been confirmed yet), then A MUCH LARGER FALL is likely. The next higher resist. for July is at 142.50-143.20/146.80-148.10, w/support at 138.00-136.75/134.20-132.45/130.75-130.60.

COCOA: While it’s virtually impossible (in Elliott terms) to make a highly bullish case here in the cocoa, Tuesday’s slight close ABOVE KEY RESISTANCE AT 2985-3026 could result in MODERATELY HIGHER PRICES..near-term. Note, UNLESS we see an immediate "downturn", we’ll have to figure that advance off the Mar low is actually a Primary wave-[b]; NOT a wave-[4]. In which case, the OPTIMUM UP-SIDE TARGET/SELL-ZONE will actually be at about the 3156-3186 level basis the nearby contract, or about 3169-3199 basis July. There’s also some resistance at 3092-3109 (JULY), w/support for JULY at 3020-2982, 2932-2918 and 2861-2847.

SUGAR: Although it’s still too early to tell whether the advance from the April 1 low in May sugar is subdividing into a SINGLE, or DOUBLE-THREE formation, it continues to look like a LARGER UP-MOVE of Primary-degree is developing. In which case, prices ought to remain in a higher trend for at least another week or two, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT *18.31-18.53. It should be noted however, that based the "magnitude" of the INITIAL DECLINE, it looks like the FAR MORE LIKELY TARGET IS AT 19.53-19.79, with the "mid-point" resistance at 18.98-19.16. Anyhow, as long as the April 1 low at 15.46 holds, HRT should be LIGHTLY LONG. Near-term resistance for May is at 16.80-16.98, 17.22-17.33 and 17.64-17.76, with the support at 16.35-16.10, 15.58-15.10 and 14.37-13.84.

COFFEE: While the long-term pattern in coffee continues to look INCREDIBLY BEARISH, the decline from the April 5 high has reached a somewhat important juncture...in terms of the overall pattern development. IF a several-day, wave-[2] bounce occurs BEFORE the Mar cont. chart low of 126.55 is exceeded, then we’ll probably see a MUCH LARGER, "five-wave decline" occur...BEFORE we see a significant rally. However, IF 126.55 is penetrated first, then we’ll probably want to look for a spot to take profits, as a multi-week/wave-[2]rally could then follow. Resistance for MAY is at 129.50-130.25 and 132.00-133.60 (GOOD!), w/support at 129.50-128.95, 127.55, 126.30-125.35 and 124.00-123.00.

SILVER: Since a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low has now been confirmed in the May silver, it certainly looks like a Primary wave-[b] top has been hit. In which case, considering that the expected, Primary wave-[c]decline will not only be of the same-degree as the BIG Dec-Feb drop, but the larger move-off the Dec 2009 top should also be of EQUAL-DEGREE to that of the HUGE 2008 DECLINE, I believe we’ll see a move to UNDER $12.00. Note, that the drop from the 2009 top should be AT LEAST 61.8%-the length of the 2008 move, or about 11.88-11.52. Resist. for May is at 17.98-18.17(good), 18.405-18.455, 18.74-18.835, w/support at 17.70-17.72/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425.

STOCKS: IF the June S&P happens to "hold" last week’s 1210.50 high initially, AND a new sell-off low also occurs AFTER 10:00 a.m. CENT. TIME ON WEDNESDAY (-1179.75), then a completed advance off the Feb low should be confirmed. In which case, since this will imply the BIGGEST DROP IN 13-MONTHS, we’ll want to try and get short. IF 1210.50 is violated first, however, then we’ll be right back in the same boat ,i.e., we’ll need a drop IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS to get a sell. Resistance is at 1204.25-1208.50, 1216.00-1221.25 and 1234.00-1239.50, w/support at 1205.00/1197.75/1190.50/1183.25(good)/1176.00/1169.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/21/10

SOYBEANS: Traders/hedgers (33%) can sell the May beans at 9.71 3/4 on-a-stop, w/a prot. stop at 9.91 1/4. CANCEL TRADE IF FIRST ABOVE 9.89 3/4 (anytime!).

COTTON: HRT/Hedgers were stopped-out of short May cotton at about 81.70 for a loss of $410.Traders were stopped-out of short July at 83.14 for a $1,260 loss

SUGAR: HRT are long May sugar at 16.38 (+$90). Keep stop at 15.30 for now.

COCOA: Traders are short May cocoa from 3172 (+$1,410). Keep stop at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$3,037). Keep stop at 134.00

OJ: Traders can sell the July OJ at *138.80, using a stop at *143.80.

SILVER: We are short a May mini silver at 17.94(+$119). Keep stop at 18.615.