SOYBEANS: Since the "wave-(5)DECLINE from the March 21 high of 12.26 3/4 in the MAY beans is now getting fairly close to the upper-end of our MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET BETWEEN 11.17-AND-10.98, we could HIT A MAJOR LOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS? However, because the Feb 29 "wave-LOW" at 11.15 on the "continuation chart" ALREADY HIT this sup-port-zone, it's also quite possible that we'll end-up falling to OUR NEXT LOWER SUPPORT LEVEL; AT 10.83-10.72 1/2? Note, these two areas possess the "50%-67.275%-AND-51.475%-70.925%-retracement combinations" from the 1999 and 2019 lows, AND depreciations of 38.2%/38.2%/30.9%-AND-39.67%/39.67%/32.725% from the 2012, 2022 and July 2023 highs. So, as long as we HOLD OUR CLOSEST AREA OF GOOD RESISTANCE; NOW AT 11.68-TO-11.79, WE'LL STAY SHORT. This level yields the "38.2%-9.1%-38.2%-retracement combination" from the 2012, 2022 and March 2024 highs, AND "appreciations" 50%, 5.568% and 2.216% from the 2019, Feb 2024 and April 2024 lows. At any rate, assuming we're able to CONFIRM A COMPLE-TED, "wave-(5)DECLINE" from the March top when either of these areas are reached, then we'll also be able to make A STRONG CASE FOR A COMPLETED, "[a]-[b]-[c]DECLINE" from the 2022 peak. At which time, the least bullish count will call for A SUBSTANTIAL, 6-TO-9-MONTH PLUS, "B-wave RALLY", of the same-degree as the 2022-2024 decline. In the event this "juncture" is followed by an initial, "5-wave RALLY", how-ever, then we could also be looking at A FAR MORE BULLISH COUNT! Near-term support is at 11.46-11.36(good?). There's also resistance at 11.48-11.53 1/2, 11.81-11.83 and 11.91-11.98(good). ADD 14 1/2-CENTS JULY.

CORN: While the quiet-action over the past couple of weeks in the corn makes it DIFFICULT to confirm the correct count, the up-move from the Feb "continuation chart" low OF 3.94 1/2 has so far ONLY produced a potentially BEARISH, "(3)-wave" pattern. Thus, UNLESS said advance EITHER turns into a "Bullish-Five", OR KEY RESISTANCE AT 4.56 1/2-4.69 IS VIOLATED, we'll have to figure that we still need to trace-out A FINAL, "wave-[9]DECLINE" to new lows (-3.94 1/2). Note, this resistance level yields the KEY, 30.9%-14.58%-retracement combination from the 2012 and 2022 highs, AND "appreciations" of 55.9% and 16.835% from the 2020 and 2024 lows. Anyhow, based on the proximity of the "80.9%-times "SC-Wave-(A)" projection, an "83.15%-retracement" from the 2020 bottom, AND "depreciations" of 54.425%, 52.95% and 13.1875% from 2012, 2022 and March 2024 highs, this interpretation suggests that the MAY AND/OR JULY CONTRACTS WILL FALL TO ABOUT THE 3.89-3.84 1/2 AREA. Eith-er way, however, once we have indeed CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, "SC-Wave-(C)DECLINE" from the 2022 top, then that will almost certainly ALSO MARK THE END OF THE "Bear-Cycle" from the 2012 all-time-high of 8.43 3/4. At which point, should ought to witness AT LEAST A SUBSTANTIAL, 1-YEAR PLUS ADVANCE, of the same-degree as the entire, 2012-2024 de-cline. In the event a "(5)-wave RALLY" occurs initially, however, THEN WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A NEW "BULL-MARKET! Near-term resistance is at 4.33 1/2 and 4.45 1/2-4.48 1/2(good), with near-term support at 4.26-4.22(good/key) and 4.13 ½-4.09(good/key?). ADD 11-CENTS FOR JULY.

WHEAT: Considering that the setback from the April 5 top in MAY wheat has now EXCEEDED the greatest "duration" of any other DROP since the March low, AND we're also close to TAKING-OUT THE 5.45-5.35 SUPPORT, A "PIVOTAL" POSITION appears to be at hand. If we DON'T get an immediate, "5-wave RALLY", then we'll have to figure that we still need to see A FINAL, "wave-(9)DECLINE". If so, based on the KEY, "76.4%-85.4%-retracement combination" from the 1999 and 2016 lows, AND "depreciations" of 63.625%, 34.55%, 19.1% and 10.40% from the 2022, July 2023, Dec 2023 and April 2024 highs PRICES SHOULD FALL TO THE 5.18 1/2-5.06 1/2 AREA. Which, EQUATES TO 5.34-5.22 IN THE JULY WHEAT. In the event a near immediate, "5-wave ADVANCE" DOES OCCUR, however, then that will probably mean that the March "continuation chart" low AT 5.19 1/2 HAS ALREADY MARKED THE END of the "Cycle-wave-A DROP" from the 2022 peak. Under this count, we should already be in A MAJOR, 6-TO-9-MONTH, "B-wave ADVANCE", of the same-degree as the BIG, 2022-2024 DROP. Based on the proximity of the KEY, "14.58%-50%-AND-23.6%-85.4%-retracement combinations" from the 2022 and July 2023 highs, AND "appreciations" of 80.9%/25.425%-AND-105.568%/41.15% from the 2016 and 2024 lows, this scenario points to A NEAR-TERM TARGET AT ABOUT 6.49-6.53; with the eventual, "wave-[a]OBJECTIVE"; AT ABOUT THE 7.31-7.39 LEVEL? There's also some support around 5.27 1/2, with near-term resistance at 5.42 1/2, 5.51-5.56(good), 5.67-5.70(good) and 5.81 1/2. ADD 15 1/2-CENTS JULY.

COTTON: Since everything continues to indicate that the down-move from the Feb 2024 high of 103.80 in the cotton is A MAJOR, "[c]-wave", of the same-degree as the BIG, May-Oct 2022 drop (158.02-to-70.21), the overall formation continues to look VERY NEGATIVE! Note, by the time we've completed a "(5)-OR-(9)-wave/[c]-wave DECLINE" from the Feb peak, my "projections" point to MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGETS AT 67.66-66.00 AND/OR *63.12-61.35. These two zones possess the "80.9%-83.15%-AND-83.15%-88.15%-retracement combinations" from the 2001 and 2020 lows, AND depreciations of 70.925%/57.375%/38.2%-AND-72.75%/60.325%-41.15% from the 2011, 2022 and 2024 highs. Traders should also note, however, because the "mid-point" of these support levels ONLY amounts to the "50%-times wave-[a]" projection, I think it's also quite possible that we'll see AN EVEN LARGER DROP here? Based on the proximity of the more normal, "61.8%-times wave-[a]" projection AT 52.98, the "88.15%-96.559%-retracement combination" from the 2001 and 2020 lows, AND "depreciations" of 76.4%, 67.27% and 50% from the 2011, 2022 and 2024 highs, I think there's a decent chance that prices WILL FALL TO THE 53.63-51.76 AREA? Resistance is at 79.99-80.45, 81.76-82.82(good), 84.47, 85.30 and 86.22-86.78(good/key), with near-term support at 79.30-78.24(good/key), 76.60 and 75.45-74.23(good!). ADD 1.80-CENTS JULY.

HOGS: Since the setback from the April 10 high of 99.72 in the MAY hogs HAS NOT YET been large enough to have confirmed a completed, "wave-[1]ADVANCE" from the Jan low on the "continuation chart", it's certainly possible that we've "RESUMED" the longer-term uptrend? How-ever, because the pattern in the FAR MORE-ACTIVE, JUNE contract DOES indicate that we've COMPLETED a "wave-[1]RALLY" from the Jan bottom, I'm going to hold-off on trying to re-enter long here. Note, if this count is correct, then we'll still need to see at least a several-day, "(b)-wave RALLY" (at some point; if it's not already under way?), AND THEN ONE MORE DROP to new sell-off lows, or "wave-(c)". At any rate, as long as the down-move from the April 10 top DOESN'T end-up producing a larger, "5-wave" pattern (on either chart), then our Preferred Count will continue to indicate that the up-move from the Jan low is A MAJOR, BUT FINAL, "C-wave", of the same-degree as the 2020-TO-2021 RALLY (37.00-TO-122.82). In which case, due to the proximity of the KEY, "61.8%-times wave-A" projection, the "85.4%-92.71%-retracement combination" from the 2014 and 2021 highs, AND "appreciations" of 223.6% and 85.4% from the 2020 and 2024 lows, it still looks like the JUNE, JULY AND/OR AUGUST CONTRACTS WILL HIT AT LEAST THE 117.55-119.75 AREA. Support for JUNE is at 102.60, 101.75-101.45 (good), 99.92-99.62 (good), 98.40-98.10(good) and 96.87-96.67, with resistance at 103.25, 104.15-104.35(good), 105.25, 106.15-106.35(good/key?) and 107.22.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

STOCKS: Given that the setback from the April 1 high in BOTH the June Mini S&P, AND the JUNE Mini Dow HAS SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED the greatest "size" AND "duration" of ANY other drop since the Oct 2023 low, we appear to have STRONGLY CONFIRMED A COMPLE-TED, "wave-[5]ADVANCE". Consequently, since this implies that we're now in a "wave-[6]DECLINE", of the same-degree as the July-Oct 2023 pullback, the "time" aspect suggests that we'll REMAIN IN A GENERAL DOWNTREND FOR ROUGHLY 2-TO-3-MONTHS. However, at least as it stands right now, my guess is that we're probably ONLY HEADED FOR ABOUT THE 4913.00-4821.00 SUPPORT-ZONE? Note, this area yields the "Equal Waves "[4]-AND-[6]" projection, the "9.1%-23.6%-retracement combination" from the 2009 and 2022 lows, AND an "8.15%-TO-9.1%-depreciation" from the April 1 top (5333.50). Over-all, however, if my Preferred Count is right, upon the COMPLETION of a "wave-[6]SETBACK", we ought to have ONE HECK OF A BUY. At that time, the stage should be set for the USUALLY DYNAMIC, "wave-[7]SECTION UP"! If so, while our 5514.00-5580.25 resistance area MAY HOLD for a while, this count suggests that we'll probably end-up "BLOWING-IT-OUT"! This zone possesses the "50%-times WAVES-I-THRU-III", AND the "76.4%-times WAVE-III" projections, AND KEY "appreciations" from prior lows. Near-term resistance is at 5084.50-5146.50(good), 5178.50-5191.00, 5242.50-5253.00, 5274.50 and 5303.00(good), with the near-term support at 5073.50-5036.50(good/key), 4993.25-4984.00(good) and 4948.00-4940.00.

SILVER: Considering that the April 12 high AT 29.905 in the MAY silver occurred very close to our KEY, 29.57-29.86 RESISTANCE AREA, AND a sharp initial drop obviously followed, it certainly looks like we've COMPLETED a "wave-(5)ADVANCE" from the March 27 bottom. Note, this zone possesses the "55.9%-47.05%-94.43%-retracement combination" from the 1980, 2011 and 2021 highs, AND A LOT of "appreciations" from previous lows. At any rate, if this count is right, then a "wave-(6)SET-BACK" will probably REMAIN IN FORCE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. Thus, while I still think it's quite possible that we'll HOLD OUR BEST SUPPORT AREA AT ABOUT 27.85-27.61, I'm inclined to lower our "stop" on longs a little bit just in case (SEE New Trades). Overall, however, given this scenario, once we've finished a "wave-(6)DECLINE", then, as unlikely as it may seem, we could actually be entering THE SINGLE-MOST POWERFUL ADVANCE SO FAR, OR "wave-(7)"! In which case, by the time we've traced-out waves "(7)-UP", "(8)-DOWN", AND THEN "(9)-UP", we should EASILY REACH OUR MINIMUM TARGET AT 31.62-TO-32.45; WITH A MOVE AS HIGH AS THE 35.27-36.01 RESISTANCE LEVEL ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE (if not probable?). Note, the closer resistance area incorporates the KEY, "76.4%-times wave-A" projection", the "61.8%-52.95%-retracement combination" from the 1980 and 2011 highs, AND "appreciations" of 172.75%, 85.4%, 52.95% and 47.05% from the 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024 lows. Near-term resistance is at 28.235-28.53 and 29.00-29.09(good?), with support at 28.58, 28.16-28.03, 27.85-27.61(good/best), 27.345-27.115(good/max?) and 26.795-26.66(good/max?). ADD 28-CENTS FOR JULY.

CRUDE OIL: Although the "odds" still appear to favor at least moderately HIGHER PRICES in the Crude Oil, I do have a couple of concerns? First, because we appear to have CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, "wave-[5]AD-VANCE" off the Oct 2023 low in the Stock Market, we could be looking at A COUPLE MONTH SETBACK here. Thus, unless the nearby contract VIOLATES the April 5-to-April 12 "Double-Top" AT 87.63-87.67, I'd stay on the sidelines. Note, if we're STILL-IN a "(b)-wave PULLBACK" from the Sept high, then we'd need to trace-out A FINAL, "c-wave DECLINE", of the same-degree as the Sept-Dec drop. Which, based on the "61.8%-times wave-a" projection, AND the "34.55%-76.4%-85.4%-retracement combination" from the 2020, May 2023 and Dec 2023 lows POINTS TO A DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 71.48-TO-70.62 ,i.e., BEFORE the stage will then be set for A BIG, BUT FINAL, "(c)-wave ADVANCE". On the other hand, however, if the April 12 top AT 87.67 IS EXCEEDED FIRST, then we'll likely "RECON-FIRM" our original count. Which, indicates that we're already WELL-INTO the final, "(c)-wave ADVANCE". Anyhow, either way, our "projections" still indicate that the eventual MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET IS AT 99.04-99.57; WITH THE BEST OBJECTIVE AT 102.68-103.68. Which, yield the "100%-AND-114.58%-times wave-(a)" projections, the "74.425%-52.95%-AND-76.4%-58.85%-retracement combinations" from the 2008 and 2022 highs, AND "appreciations" of 55.9%/47.05%-AND-61.8%/52.95% from the May and Dec lows. Near-term support is at 83.03-82.32(good), 80.95-80.15(good), 79.27 and 77.98, with near-term resistance at 83.30, 84.30, 85.52-85.88(good), 87.59-87.96 and 89.18-89.83(good). -.58-CENTS JUNE.

COFFEE: Since we ONLY need to see A DROP IN EXCESS OF ABOUT 2-TRADING DAYS in the JULY coffee, in order to CONFIRM A COMPLETED, "(3)-wave RALLY" off the Oct 2023 low, we could be getting close to A RATHER "CRITICAL" POSITION? At that point, if a "5-wave DECLINE" happens to occur, then that could mean that we've COMPLETED a "[b]-wave RALLY"? In which case, as discussed over the past few months, by the time we have traced-out a larger, BUT FINAL, "[c]-wave DECLINE" PRICES COULD DROP TO THE 119.60-116.60 AREA? With that said, however, because we've now SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED BOTH the optimum "PRICE" AND "TIME" for a "[b]-wave PEAK", the more likely scenario continues to indicate that the Jan 2023, or Oct 2023 low HAS ALREADY MARKED THE END OF A "B-wave DECLINE" from the 2022 high (260.45). If so, based on the proximity of the KEY, "76.4%-times Wave-A" projection, the "76.4%-85.4%-retracement combination" from the 1977 and 2011 highs, AND "appreciations" 561.8%, 216.835% and 90.9% from the 2001, 2019 and 2023 lows, it looks like THE BARE MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET IS BETWEEN 267.65-AND-275.05. In the event it's EITHER NOT POSSIBLE to label a completed advance when this area is hit, however, OR A CLOSE-OVER 275.05 OCCURS, then we could also be looking at MUCH HIGHER LEVELS! Near-term resistance for JULY is at 237.95-240.65(good), 245.50-246.90(good), 250.10-251.75(good) and 254.25, with support at 239.90-238.95, 236.55, 235.05-233.35(good), 231.70-231.15, 229.30, 228.40-226.10(good), 224.45 and 223.30-221.35.

COCOA: Provided the "wave-(9)-of-[9]ADVANCE" from the April 4 low in the cocoa is indeed producing a "9-wave EXTENSION", then the current setback should be just a "wave-6"? In which case, by the time we've traced-out waves "7-UP", "8-DOWN", AND THEN "9-UP", who knows how far prices may carry. At the moment, however, my "projections" continue to suggest that THE MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGETS ARE AT 11,218-11,231 AND/OR 11,477-11,519 (SUBTRACT ABOUT $425 FOR JULY?). These levels incorporate the "3.00%-AND-3.09.1%-times Wave-A" projections, AND "appreciations" of "15.654%/5.345%/4.1179%-AND-16.091%-5.50%/4.236%" from the 2000, 2017 and 2022 lows. Overall, however, UNTIL we've actually witnessed A DROP IN EXCESS OF 5-TRADING DAY, it will be very difficult to confirm a major top. Once this threshold HAS been met, however, then that will presumably be enough to CONFIRM BOTH A COMPLETED, "wave-[9]-SECTION UP" from the Jan 2024 bottom, AND A COMPLETED, "Cycle-wave-III ADVANCE" from the Sept 2023 low. At which point, the stage should be set for at least A BIG, 6-MONTH PLUS, "Cycle-wave-IV DECLINE", of the same-degree as the 2020-2022 DROP. In the event a "(5)-wave DECLINE" occurs here, however, then we could also see A MUCH LARGER DROP! Near-term resistance is at 10,283, 10,442-10,487, 10,620, 10,762-10,784 and 10,942-10,960(good), with support at 10,216-10,176(good/key), 10,061-10,021(good), 9904-9864(good/key) and 9748-9708(good). -$275 FOR JULY.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS     04/18/24

BEANS: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MAY beans at 12.26 3/4(+$3,862). Keep the stop at 11.83 3/4.

WHEAT: HRT are long MAY wheat at 5.45(-$400). Keep the stop at 5.30. If stopped-out, try to buy JULY at 5.34 1/2, with a stop at 5.15 1/2.

SILVER: HRT are long 2-MAY 1,000 oz. silver at 27.875(+$1,002). Keep the stop at 26.60.