SOYBEANS: [I’ll update Tuesday] Since Friday’s move-up to new rally highs in the beans makes it VERY DIFFICULT to make a case for a bearish, “(5)-wave DECLINE” from the Jan 2 peak; especially on the “continuation chart”, I’m guessing that there’s now BETTER THAN A 50%-CHANCE...THAT WE’VE NOT YET FINISHED THE “CYCLE-WAVE-B ADVANCE” from the May 2019 low. Given this scenario, which suggests that we’ve actually been in a “wave-[b]DECLINE” since the Oct 2019 high, we’d now need to trace-out A FINAL, “wave-[c]ADVANCE”, of the same-degree as the May-Oct 2019 rally. In which case, I would think that we’ll at least attempt A THIRD-TEST OF OUR LONGSTANDING TARGET...AT 9.44 ½-9.53. However, based on the KEY, “61.8%-times wave-[a]” projection, the “19.1%-44.1%-retracement combination” from the 2012 and 2016 highs, AND numerous “appreciations” from past lows, this count suggests that prices COULD REACH THE 9.64 3/4-9.74 AREA ,i.e., BEFORE A SUPER-BEARISH FORMATION IS TRULY AT HAND! Traders and producers should also note, however, because the longer-term pattern REMAINS QUITE BEARISH, AND I CAN STILL MAKE A GOOD CASE FOR A COMPLETED, “Triple-Three Advance”;at the Jan 2 high of 9.49, I’m NOT INTERESTED in trying the long-side here. In simple terms, just because we DON’T have an obviously bearish, “(5)-wave DROP”, that DOESN’T MEAN that this market couldn’t fall sharply at any time. It just means that the “odds” have DECREASED for now. Near-term resistance is at 8.83 ½-8.86, 8.93 ½, 8.98 ½-9.03(good/key) and 9.12, with support at 8.80, 8.71-8.70(good) and 8.59 ½-8.54 ½(good). ADD 8 1/4-CENTS FOR MAY.

CORN: Although BOTH the wheat and beans came extremely close to triggering at least moderate “buy-signals” last week, Monday’s BIG DROP obviously prevented that from happening. By the same token, however, because the nearby MARCH corn has now also SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED KEY SUPPORT...AT THE 3.75 ½-3.72 LEVEL, we may have CONFIRMED that the Jan 23 high at 3.94 HAS INDEED MARKED THE END of a “wave-(b)ADVANCE”...from the Sept 2019 low ,i.e., via the “continuation chart”. In which case, since this count implies that we’re now in a “wave-3-of-c DECLINE”, we could be looking at A FAIRLY NEGATIVE COUNT. Given this scenario, by the time we’ve traced-out a larger, “5-or-9-wave DROP” from the Jan 23 high, my “projection” analysis continues to indicate that the nearby contract WILL REACH THE 3.54 3/4-3.45 ½ SUPPORT AREA. At which point, IF it’s possible to label A COMPLETED, “(a)-(b)-(c)DECLINE” from the June 2019 high, then we should be looking at A RATHER BULLISH-POSITION. If it’s EITHER NOT possible to label a completed drop, however, OR the 2019 low at 3.35 ½ IS VIOLATED, then we will confirm that we’ve ALREADY FINISHED the “CYCLE-WAVE-B ADVANCE” from the 2016 low. Which, would be QUITE BEARISH! Finally, in the event the corn happens to produce a near immediate, “5-wave RALLY” INSTEAD, then there’s still a chance that we’ll need to stage A FINAL, “wave-c ADVANCE”...TO THE 4.03 3/4-4.07 ½ LEVEL. Near-term resistance is at 3.75, 3.79-3.80 3/4(good) 3.86 and 3.92 ½, with support at 3.72, 3.65 and 3.60-3.59. ADD 3 3/4-CENTS FOR MAY.

WHEAT: Although the initial decline from the Jan high in the wheat DID NOT produce an obviously bearish, “(5)-wave” pattern, we DID get a large enough drop to CONFIRM A COMPLETED, “WAVE-C ADVANCE”...from the Sept low. Thus, considering that the last rally DID HOLD OUR CRITICAL RESISTANCE...AT THE 5.65 3/4-5.71 LEVEL, AND prices have now “BLOWN-OUT” the Feb 12 lows, I’m obviously very glad that we WEREN’T STOPPED OF OUR SHORT-POSITION. In essence, while there’s still A SLIGHT CHANCE that we need to trace-out A FINAL, “wave-(5)ADVANCE”; back-up to at least the 5.87-5.94 3/4 objective, this week’s drop to new sell-off lows certainly appears to have SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED THE “ODDS” OF AN ALREADY COMPLETED, “SC-WAVE-[c]”, or “SC-WAVE-[X]ADVANCE” from the 2016 low. In which case, since this count implies that we’re still-in JUST AN INITIAL, “wave-[1]”, OR “wave-[a]DECLINE”, we could obviously be looking at A VERY NEGATIVE COUNT! As discussed before, based on the current formation, coupled with A LOT of different projections, I think we’re looking at A MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET...AT THE 4.35 ½-4.31 LEVEL. Once a “wave-[1]/[a]DROP” has ENDED, however, then we could see A SIZEABLE, “wave-[2]/[b]ADVANCE”...BEFORE the stage is then set for A MORE NEGATIVE, “wave-[3]/[c]DECLINE”! Near-term resistance is at 5.44 ½-5.45 ½(good) and 5.56 ½-5.57 ½, with near-term support at 5.35 ½, 5.29 ½-5.23(good), 5.16 ½ and 5.10-5.03(good). SUBTRACT 1 ½-CENTS FOR MAY.

COTTON: While the up-move from the Feb 3 low (66.75) in the nearby MARCH cotton DID last a couple days longer than I would’ve preferred, prices NEVER DID get much past our closest area of KEY RESISTANCE...AT THE 68.15-68.79 LEVEL. Thus, considering that Monday’s drop in BOTH the MARCH and MAY contracts has SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED the Feb 3 lows, I can now make a pretty strong case for a “(5)-wave DECLINE” off the Jan high (especially on the continuation chart). Thus, since this development appears to have CONFIRMED that we have indeed FINISHED a “Primary wave-[2]corrective-rally”...from the August 2019 low, we could now be entering THE HEART OF A MAJOR, “Primary wave-[3]DECLINE”! Under this count, while it’s possible that we’re still-in just the INITIAL, “wave-(1)-of-[3]SECTION DOWN”, my guess is...that we’re actually in a “wave-(5)DECLINE” here, within a larger, “(9)-wave EXTENSION”. In which case, be the time we’ve completed waves “(5)-down”, “(6)-up”, “(7)-down”, “(8)-up”, and then “(9)-down”, prices should at least reach our MINIMUM TARGET...AT THE 51.76-51.02 LEVEL. However, I still think the OPTIMUM OBJECTIVE FOR JUST THE “wave-[3]DROP”...IS AT THE 47.10-45.91 LEVEL. Resistance is at 66.60 and 68.15-68.79 (good/key), with support at 66.00, 65.05 and 63.93. ADD .10-CENTS FOR MAY.

HOGS: As long as the (now nearby) APRIL hogs HOLD the “30.9%-38.2%-retracement/resistance combination” from the 2014 and 2019 highs, AND numerous “appreciations” from past lows...AT THE 69.05-69.90 LEVEL, then my SLIGHTLY Preferred Count here will indicate that we’re STILL-IN a larger, “Double-Three Decline” from the May 2019 high. In which case, based on the 3-MONTH duration of the first, “[a]-[b]-[c]SECTION DOWN”, my “time” analysis implies that we could see A SUBSTANTIAL DROP INTO THE LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL PERIOD. Note, IF this count is right, then the APRIL hogs would need to at least TAKE-OUT THE FEB 3 “CONTINUATION CHART” LOW...AT 54.67 (which, was the low from the now expired FEB contract). Given this scenario, however, once we’ve completed the FINAL, “wave-[c]SECTION DOWN”, then the stage should be set for A SUBSTANTIAL, SEVERAL-MONTH, “CYCLE-WAVE-B ADVANCE”. Of course, on the other hand, IF the APRIL hogs EITHER EXCEED THE 69.05-69.90 RESISTANCE, OR it becomes apparent that we’re NOT in a “Primary wave-[c]DECLINE”, then we’ll have to figure that we’ve ALREADY FINISHED THE “CYCLE-WAVE-A DROP”...from the 2019 high. Under this count, while I DON’T necessarily think we’ll see a big rally in the APRIL hogs, the high via the “continuation chart” should NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER APRIL GOES OFF-THE-BOARD. Near-term resistance is at 66.10-66.52(good) and 67.35-67.92 (good), with support at 64.55-64.45, 62.87-62.67(good) and 61.22-61.02(good).

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

STOCKS: Although it’s unfortunate that the MARCH Mini S&P DID NOT make it up to our longstanding, minimum target...at the 3456.25-3475.00 level first, as I would’ve been able to make a good case for a significant top, the drop over the past couple of days obviously appears to have already accomplished that task. In essence, since we’ve now CLEARLY CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, “wave-(3)”, OR “wave-(7)ADVANCE” from the Oct 2019 low, we should now be in a decline that’s AT LEAST of the same-degree as the Sept-Oct 2019 drop. In which case, we ought to REMAIN in a “downward correction” for AT LEAST 3-WEEKS OR SO, WITH THE MINIMUM TARGET AT ABOUT THE GENERAL AREA OF THE JAN 31 LOW...AT 3212.75. On other hand, however, because is it’s also quite possible that we’re in a “wave-(4)DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the entire, “sideways pattern” that occurred between MAY-AND-OCTO-BER 2019, we could also see A CONSIDERABLY LARGER DROP...IN TERMS OF BOTH “PRICE” AND “TIME”. Given this scenario, it could take A COUPLE OF MONTHS (or more?), with prices FALLING AS LOW AS THE 3044.00-TO-2997.00 LEVEL ,i.e., BEFORE the stage is set for A MAJOR BUT FINAL, “wave-(5) ADVANCE”. Resistance is at 3236.00, 3251.50, 3268.00-3270.00, 3304.00-3309.50 (good) and 3321.50-3324.50(good), with near-term support at 3245.50-3243.50 (good), 3227.50, 3212.75-3207.25(good/key), 3194.50, 3180.00-3178.00 (good) and 3165.50.

SILVER: Again, since we still need to see another move-up to new rally highs in the MARCH silver, AFTER the next 1-day plus drop ends, in order to strongly confirm that the advance-off the Jan 29 low is indeed an “Impulse-Wave”, we DON’T want to get a “5-wave DROP” here. Note, if that did happen, then we’d still need to trace-out A FINAL, “wave-c DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the Jan 8-Jan 29 setback ,i.e., BEFORE the longer-term uptrend actually resumes. With that said, however, IF my Preferred Count is right here, AND WE’VE ALREADY FINISHED a “wave-(2)DECLINE” from the Jan peak, then we should now be in a potentially DYNAMIC, “wave-(3)-of-[5]ADVANCE”! Given this scenario, by the time we’ve traced-out a larger “5-or-9-wave RALLY” from the Jan 29 low, prices should EASILY REACH THE 19.61-19.725 RESISTANCE AREA. However, if it’s NOT possible to label a completed, “wave-(3)SECTION UP”...when this zone is hit, then I guess we could reach OUR LONGSTANDING TARGET AT 21.25-21.40; BEFORE a “wave-(4)DROP” occurs? Given this scenario, we may have to RAISE our objective? From a long-term standpoint, however, once we’ve FINISHED a “wave-[5]ADVANCE” from the Dec low, then we should be looking at THE MOST BEARISH-POSITION SINCE THE 2011 TOP! Near-term resistance is at 18.835-18.91(key) and 19.245-19.32, with support at 18.66-18.58, 18.315-18.24, 18.12-18.02 and 17.845-17.67.

CRUDE: [SEE CHART] Considering that the Feb 20 high at 54.66 in the APRIL Crude Oil occurred right at the mid-point of our KEY, “23.6%-34.55%-30.9%-retracement/resistance combination” from the 2008, 2018 and 2020 highs; AT THE 54.29-54.90 LEVEL, AND a sharp, “5-wave DROP” has followed, it certainly looks like we have indeed FINISHED a “wave-(2)RALLY”. In which case, since this count implies that we’re now in a “wave-(3)DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the BIG, Jan-Feb, “wave-(1)SECTION DOWN”, we could obviously be looking at A VERY NEGATIVE COUNT! Note, because BOTH the “61.8%-times wave-[a]”, AND the “61.8%-times wave-(1)” projections...OCCUR BETWEEN 44.40-AND-44.30, there’s a reasonable chance that JUST the “wave-(3)-of-[c]DROP” will reach our longstanding, MINIMUM TARGET; ACTUALLY AT THE 45.50-44.30 LEVEL. In which case, since this count implies that we’ll still need to trace-out waves “(4)-up” (at some point?), and then “(5)-DOWN”, it’s possible that prices will end-up FALLING TO OUR MAX SUPPORT...AT THE 40.83-39.36 LEVEL? Longer-term, however, once we’ve FINISHED a “Single”, OR “Double-Three Decline” from the Oct 2018 high, then we ought to have GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY! At that point, the stage should be set for A MAJOR, “CYCLE-WAVE-C ADVANCE”. N.t. resistance is at 51.92(good), 52.61 and 53.29, with support at 50.88-50.15(good/key), 49.54 and 48.19-47.52(good).

COFFEE: Since the initial advance-off the Feb 6 low (99.55) in the MAY coffee produced a pretty good-looking, “5-wave/Impulse-Pattern”, AND the setback from Tuesday’s high has also resulted in just a “3-wave correction”, it’s highly likely that we have indeed FINISHED EITHER a “wave-(a)”, OR “wave-[b]DECLINE” from the Dec high. In which case, given the least bullish scenario, a “wave-(b)ADVANCE” will likely remain in force...UNTIL THE NEARBY CONTRACT HAS REACHED THE 132.05-133.30 LEVEL. Note, this area yields the “30.9%-21.345%-85.4%-retracement combination” from the 1977, 2011 and 2019 highs. Once a “wave-(b) RALLY” ENDS, however, this count indicates that we’ll still need to trace-out A FINAL,“(c)-wave DROP”, of the same-degree as the Dec-Feb DECLINE” ,i.e., BEFORE A REALLY BULLISH-POSITION IS AT HAND! In the event we’ve ALREADY FINISHED a “Primary wave-[b]SET-BACK” from the Dec high, however, which will be confirmed, IF a fully-pronounced, “(5)-wave RALLY” also occurs here, then we should be looking at A FAR MORE BULLISH COUNT! Based on the KEY, “Equal Waves [a]-and-[c]” projection, AND other calculations, this scenario implies A MINIMUM TARGET...AT 149.45-TO-154.55. Near-term resistance for MAY is at 109.50, 111.10, 112.75-113.25(very good), 114.20 and 115.30-116.10(good), with the support at 107.90-107.25, 105.80-104.30(best/good!), 102.60-101.95(good/max?) and 100.40.

COCOA: Given that the overall advance from the 2017 low (1770) in the cocoa continues to look like A BEARISH, “[3]-wave” pattern, AND the nearby contract has ALMOST REACHED OUR LONGSTANDING TARGET AT THE 3026-3058 LEVEL, we certainly could be very close to A MAJOR TOP? The main problem right now, however, is that it’s VERY DIFFICULT to make a case for EITHER a completed, “Single”, OR “Double-Three Advance”. Note, we presumably need to see at least A SEVERAL-WEEK, “wave-(4)SETBACK” (at some point?), and then stage at least ONE MORE SIZEABLE RALLY, OR “wave-(5)”. So, IF such a “pullback” happens to occur, BEFORE the nearby contract actually hits the 3026-3058 objective, then there’s still a chance that this area could mark the final high. However, IF a strong close-above 3058 occurs, then prices will likely “blow-off” to EITHER of our two next higher areas of KEY RESISTANCE...AT THE 3160-3165 AND/OR 3301-3304. Overall, however, once we have indeed FINISHED a “[3]-wave ADVANCE” from the 2017 low, we should be looking at THE MOST BEARISH-POSITION SINCE THE 2011 TOP!

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS     02/25/20

BEANS: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MARCH beans at 9.35 (+$2,900). Let’s roll short MARCH to the MAY contract, placing ALL STOPS ON SHORT MAY AT 9.14 1/4.

WHEAT: HRT/HEDGERS are short MARCH wheat at 5.65(+$1,400). Let’s roll short MARCH to the MAY contract, placing ALL STOPS ON SHORT MAY AT 5.69 1/4.

COTTON: HRT/HEDGERS are short MARCH cotton at 69.59(+$1,295). Let’s roll short MARCH to the MAY cotton, placing ALL STOPS ON SHORT MAY AT 70.31.

SILVER: HRT are long MARCH Mini Silver at 17.825(+$2,625). Keep the stop at 17.30.

CRUDE OIL: HRT are short an APRIL Mini Crude at 54.30(+$1,562). Use a stop at 56.20.

COFFEE: HRT are long MAY coffee at 106.65 (+$94). Keep the stop at 104.00.